The most popular search engine on the Internet could be headed for rough sailings over the next year or two, according to the creator of Gmail.
During that time frame, artificial intelligence will eliminate the need for search engine results pages, where Google makes most of its money, and even if the search giant deploys AI to catch up, it won’t do it without destroying the most valuable. part of its business, predicted Paul Bukhit in a thread on Twitter.
Google may be only a year or two away from total disruption. AI will eliminate the search engine result page, which is where they make most of their money.
Even if they get hold of AI, they cannot fully deploy it without destroying the most valuable part of their business! https://t.co/jtq25LXdkj
— Paul Bukhit (@paultoo) December 1, 2022
“The one thing very few people remember is the pre-Internet business that Google killed: the Yellow Pages!” they wrote. “The Yellow Pages used to be a great business, but then Google got so good that everyone stopped using the Yellow Pages.”
“AI will do the same thing for web search,” he said.
As Buchte sees it, a browser’s URL/search bar will be replaced with an AI that autocompletes a thought or question as it’s typed, as well as providing the best answer, based on what a user can find. May contain a link to a website or product.
The AI will use the old search engine backend to gather relevant information and links, which will then be summarized for the user, he continued.
“It’s like asking a professional human researcher to do a job, except the AI will instantly do what would take several minutes for a human,” he wrote.
Ben Kobren, head of communications and public policy at Neeva, an AI-based search engine based in Washington, DC, said online search is long overdue for an overhaul.
“If you look at search over the past 20 years, with a few exceptions, it’s been relatively stable,” he told TechNewsWorld.
“We have become accustomed to the world of 10 Blue Lynx,” he explained. “You put in a question, and on a good day, you get 10 or so relatively useful links to websites that you need to explore further to find the answer to your search or question. On a bad day, you get ads. You get two pages of ads trying not to answer your question until you click and buy something and scroll through the ads.
“In any case,” he continued, “you are not going to get fluid answers that are simple, efficient, and do what you are looking for in one stop. The power of large language models and AI is about to make a transformative leap in that.” How do we interact with search engines and how do we expect information to be returned to us?
“We haven’t seen that kind of change in search in two decades,” he said.
How much disturbance?
Artificial intelligence disrupts the current search model by providing an easier way to find consumers, explained Noam Doros, a director analyst at Gartner, a research and advisory firm based in Stamford, Conn.
Doros told TechNewsWorld, “Instead of spending time reviewing different search results for the same answer on search engine results pages, AI aggregates information relevant to the consumer, summarizing it in a detailed yet concise manner.” “
He added, “Consumers have short attention spans given the endless amount of information now accessible through various platforms, so any advancement in technology to satiate the thirst for knowledge in a concise manner is clearly a game changer.” Could be a changer.”
Rowan Curran, an analyst at Forrester Research, a national market research company, pointed to some challenges for AI-guided search.
“Large language models like OpenAI’s ChatGPT are not a brand new introduction to the online search market,” Karan told TechNewsworld. “While LLMs are great for some tasks in search, there are many situations where getting a single answer isn’t the goal of an online search. For example, when looking for a local restaurant, you can go straight to where to eat.” Would like to see a list with ratings rather than get answers.
“Because of the cost of re-training, keeping LLM up to date on all the data scraped from the Internet would be prohibitively expensive,” he said. “With further research and work on the distillation of the model, this cost is likely to come down, but whether it is high enough to support live online search is an open question.”
advantages of market dominance
Greg Sterling, co-founder of Near Media, a news, comment and analysis website, said AI will certainly transform search, but how disruptive it will be remains to be seen.
“AI responses are already being integrated into Niva,” he told TechNewsworld. “There are also Perplexity.ai and others promoting AI as a search alternative. Bing will launch AI-generated content. But if everyone did it, including Google, it might not be as disruptive. Right now, AI results live at the top of the results as a sort of large snippet.
“Google is potentially vulnerable, but it would be unwise to bet against them,” Sterling said. “They have massive AI assets; They’ve been slow to roll them out. AI content can affect ad clicks and Google revenue. This is the real concern for the company.
Niva AI Search | Image courtesy of Neeva
Google has a leg up on competitors on several levels, said Ross Rubin, principal analyst at Reticle Research, a consumer technology advisory firm in New York City.
Where searches happen is where Google has an advantage over its competitors, he explained. It is the default search app for market leader Chrome, in the browser market, and Android, the mobile phone market, and it has a deal with Apple as the default search engine on those platforms.
Rubin told TechNewsWorld, “Even if AI search engines create a better way to find information or meet consumer needs than Google, Google will still have a dominant presence, through which it can maintain its leadership.” Is.”
Kobren acknowledged that disrupting a highly successful business like Google in two years would be a huge challenge.
“What is clear is that this is a platform-shifting moment,” he said. “For the first time, you are going to see a real change in users adopting alternatives to Google. You’re about to see real competition in space for the first time. There is going to be some kind of movement. How big is it going to be in two years? We can’t predict it.”
Liz Miller, vice president and a principal analyst at Constellation Research, a technology research and advisory firm in Cupertino, California, said it would be difficult to find an industry, segment or company that isn’t going to be disrupted by AI. in the next two to five years.
“The reality here is that AI is seeing a quick path out of the experiment lab and into really meaningful automation and intelligence applications that are delivering business and personal value,” Miller told TechNewsWorld.
“I hope AI makes search again about relevancy and real-time user context, rather than a three-horse race between user needs, publisher inventory and Google’s business model,” she said. “It has that potential.”