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January 2, 2023

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It’s the start of a new year, and I hope 2023 works out better than I currently think. Financially, we’re in a bit of trouble, but there are some amazing technologies coming to market this year that I look forward to seeing.

CES, starting shortly, will be the first big showcase of what’s to come – and from the pre-briefings I’ve seen, there are a lot of good things to come this year.

Let’s explore some of them this week. We’ll get to my first product of the week for 2023 next week because I don’t have room in this column.

The Economy of 2023 Looks Ugly

The last few years have not been good for many reasons, but mostly because governments have not handled the pandemic well. The shutdown crippled the supply chain, and when people started coming back, they wanted to buy goods, creating a supply-demand imbalance that caused government agencies to do terrible things for interest rates.

It looks like in 2023 those chickens will come to roost. We’ll have an ominous mix of buyers who don’t have money but have excessive inventory due to improved manufacturing efficiencies and I expect layoffs to accelerate.

This should be a time when sellers ramp up marketing for demand generation to capture as much of the shrinking market as possible. Still, most people would ignore this Business 101 lesson and instead reduce demand generation, allowing firms that audited Business 101 during this time to cut back on marketing.

I think 2023 will again show that demand management should have both carrot and stick, the stick being high interest rates on borrowings and the carrot being high interest rates on savings. More effort is needed to shift perceptions so that there is a rapid change in buying behavior to mitigate the problem.

Communicating effectively with citizens so that they can modify their behavior in a timely manner, apart from interest rate changes, has a more significant, faster impact on this category of problem which is primarily behavior-based.

wars

China will continue to be a problem largely because its Covid responses are failing, and its government is unwilling to ask for help. China’s vaccines appear ineffective, but instead of seeking overseas vaccines that work, they struggle to cope with being overwhelmed by sick people.

These circumstances could force an unwarranted war with Taiwan to distract from domestic issues at home. But the vaccine’s lack of effectiveness points to a more significant problem in China and many other countries: a tendency to cover up issues rather than address them. All this suggests that China’s military, like Russia’s, may not be able to perform as expected by the Chinese leadership.

While the dynamics of the war with Taiwan may seem very different from the one in Ukraine, the coverage of the problems is consistent between Russia and China, potentially creating a similar standoff between the countries. However, as long as the conflict continues, manufacturing in Taiwan and exports from China will take a hit and potentially create a new and even bigger supply chain problem.

Companies are moving aggressively to reduce their exposure, but most programs like the CHIPS Act I’ve seen won’t mature until closer to 2025, leaving us exposed in 2023. Ukraine is not expected to be able to recover its manufacturing capacity. Two to five years after the end of the war. Since this has not happened yet, there will likely be shortages associated with Ukrainian manufacturing until 2023 – such as the ASIC chips that are a vital part of most electronics, including cars.

electric vehicles

2023 will be the year that electric charging capabilities increase dramatically, and we will begin to see second generation battery and engine technology with increased range and performance hit the market. However, when it comes to distance we’ll still fall short of making electric cars a proper replacement for gas vehicles.

Nonetheless, we’ll start to see the release of the next generation of electric cars and a further increase in driver assistance and in-car entertainment capabilities. However, it looks like the most significant changes are likely to happen in 2024 for the 2025 line of cars due to be launched that year.

Think of 2023 as the last year of the current generation of electrics and 2024 as the first wave of the next generation of electric cars, which will likely be released as 2025 models.

As a result, in 2023, I’d favor buying used rather than new in anticipation of more significant changes for the 2025 model year release. The exceptions would be cars from vendors like Rivian and Lucid, which are already building cars that we might call next-generation, recognizing that there are unique risks to buying cutting-edge technology.

personal flying vehicle

We should see an impressive number of electric flying personal recreational vehicles on the market. Some of these are already visible.

Basically, they use drone technology to fly humans, resulting in something relatively easy to build and not really the skill required to fly things under a recreational flying license. Where I live, we get regular complaints about people flying ultralight vehicles over houses, which I’m sure will increase with these new vehicles.

Still, they look like a ton of fun. I’m tempted to treat myself as a toy that will work in the summer and assuming I can handle the cold, winter as a nearly perfect all-terrain vehicle. Just don’t lose power at the height.

personal computers

PCs will go through multiple screen revisions throughout the years, from multiple screens to rolling screens. The rolling screen was teased during several announcements recently.

The idea of ​​being able to expand your screen vertically or horizontally (doing both at the same time is beyond us for now) could be a game changer for those of us who go through screen size envy with current laptops.

Expect more efficient chargers, a greater focus on sustainability overall, and a continued effort to find that sweet spot for PC as a Service (PCaaS).

Look for progress in recycling and adaptation this year as the industry is likely to have a particularly soft sales period due to massive overbuying during the past several years.

smartphones

There’s going to be a new Apple iPhone contender, but I’ll talk about that when it launches.

Expect to see rollable displays before the end of the year and improvements to the camera software are focused on helping you create better looking avatars to come with the latest phones.

Real-time video streaming enhancements and features will improve, and we should get our first look at the next generation of AI-based digital assistants before the end of the year.

Conversational AI has improved substantially since Siri launched, and we should start to see the resulting benefits on most platforms next year.

Look for wireless charging enhancements in premium phones as the year progresses.

Video Conferencing and Collaboration

Confusion over whether people will stay home or return to office has really messed up this segment, and I am yet to see the light at the end of the tunnel.

As a result, solutions will be diverse, with some focused on improving the experience in larger rooms and others in the home.

Expect better camera tracking with cameras, better noise isolation with microphones and speakers, and significantly stronger audience monitoring tools, which will probably make video gamers cringe during Zoom calls (yes, we know you do). Huh).

We’ll likely see at least one vendor develop a unique way to solve the camera placement problem with built-in and aftermarket cameras.

metaverse

The metaverse is a bit of a mess, largely thanks to the early implementation of meta. However, this is ironic because once it matures, the Metaverse will have the potential to convey a vision of the future better than any prior technology.

There’s a chance that Meta will eventually figure this out and instead of showing where it is, start showing what it will be. Nvidia has been doing this for a while in the commercial space, which while compelling, most of us aren’t touching.

As a result, if Meta doesn’t take steps to communicate a vision, the consumer side of the Metaverse will go into decline in 2023, waiting for a company to blend the Metaverse’s power with its ability to deliver benefits and compelling narratives. The nature of what it will be, rather than the despair of what it currently is.

AI and Robotics

2023 will be a huge year for AI and robotics. I’m grouping these technologies because this will be the year AI-powered personal robotics expands far beyond the initial wave of robotic vacuum cleaners.

I’m looking forward to robotic security solutions, robotic snow blowers and even a growing number of robotic personal assistants. We’ll also see more robot bartenders, french fry machines and the first realistic prototypes of automated fast-food restaurants.

While we will still be at the beginning of the coming robotic wave, by the end of 2023, we should have a better idea of ​​where this technology is going and how soon it will overwhelm us with robotic options.

One area that will see huge growth in the use of artificial intelligence is the health care industry. AI will be used more widely to create new treatments and cures and provide interactive AI interfaces for patients that more limited medical staff can provide than ever before. I’m recovering from the flu as I write this, so I’m especially looking forward to this medical AI improvement.

Television

2023 will be the true emergence of 8K TVs, and we’ll see more affordable rollable display TVs in limited runs. We’ve had 8K and rollable TVs before but mostly in prototype form. Both technologies are now going into production, allowing them to hit the high-end market.

We’ll have less of a problem with 8K than with the 4K TVs that preceded them because of the upscale improvements. While these sets will attract a lot of attention, sales will be hindered until 2023 when prices become much more reasonable than I expect. However, it is possible that by the end of the year, at least one of these two technologies has gone mainstream.

I think it’s more likely that 2025 will be the year that 8K and rollable display TVs show their potential. It will take at least that long to reach a critical mass of materials and rollable screen manufacturing capacity to provide the convergence of materials and technology as value to the buyer.

wrapping up

These predictions are far from exhaustive. I haven’t mentioned the pivot to air-to-rail travel in Europe that will accelerate next year, the potential failure of Twitter which I personally attribute to Elon Musk’s deliberately poor choice of new CEO, or advances in both broadcast power and microgrids. I see as Next year. We also have the renewed promise of fusion power, although I expect that will have to wait until the second half of the decade for it to go into widespread trials.

So far, I haven’t mentioned advances in robotic companions like robotic humans because I still find them creepy, autonomous vehicles because they aren’t massive until 2025, or robot pets, which will be more obvious in future years. Will happen Advances in farming with robotics and vertical farms, advances in disease detection, and the growing challenge of keeping personal things private will also continue to trend.

Overall, I expect 2023 to be especially difficult for companies that either don’t understand the market they’re in or lean too hard on demand generation funding, allowing their competitors to revolve around them. permission is granted.

Think of the year like musical chairs but with money instead of chairs. There will be a smaller pool of available spending dollars, and companies that don’t fight for every penny will fail.

I wish you and yours the best of luck in the new year, although 2023 itself may be a challenging year for most people to meet.

The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ECT News Network.